Real estate prices have recently been discussed often and a lot. Check the bag to see if they go up or down. To get answers, we addressed the most professional – banks that rent real estate, developers and real estate agencies that sell them, and independent analysts.
View of banks on real estate
The business of banks is directly up to the first estimate of future developments in the real estate market. An incorrect estimate of the real estate market and irresponsibility in the provision of mortgages by American banks is considered to be the main reason for the current problems of the world economy – and with them the Czech Republic.
Raiffeisenbank is the bank that develops mortgage levels, especially among Czech banks. How do you see the development of prices this year? “Estimates of this year’s real estate prices are in the pound of a sphere. Urit should not be at all a decline in all real estate – the quality of the project. For quality projects, prices stabilize, elsewhere they will fall. There will be days of dramatic declines, especially for new and high-quality projects, so it will probably not happen, “said Tom Kofro, the bank’s spokesman, to our question.
At the same time, in November of last year, the bank, like most other banks, limited the provision of mortgage bonds – and since then it has provided them to a maximum of only 75% of the mortgage value of the property. In an interview with Hypoindex.cz, Lubor Alman, CEO of Raiffeisenbank, answered the question, saying that such a radical limitation was so clear: “Because of the decline in real estate prices.”
Bedich Skalick, CEO of Realitní společnost esk spoitelny, agreed with the opinion that the prices of quality real estate in attractive locations will not be reduced: On the other hand, prices of new buildings in particular are falling in a long way, by about 8 – 15%. On the other hand, prices may stagnate over a period of about one year (for example, in the case of apartment prices in prefabricated buildings) or even increase slightly. ”
Petr Hlav, Chief Executive Officer of Hypoten banka, will predict a decline in real estate prices: are, for example, the latest actions of development companies). On the other hand, prices may not fall in the case of land for individual construction with a suitable location in cities or with close civic amenities due to their permanent shortage. ”
Developei: do not worry about new housing, old flats will fall
The real estate business and developer is somewhat different and is sensitive to various factors. While for real estate brokers it is decisive whether to sell and buy, when the price is and in the second place, for developers the price and “turnover” are equally important. For both developers and real estate agencies, however, the critical effect of the decline in property prices is critical, when any shops and buyers wait for discounts.
Tom Pardubick, CEO of FINEP, anticipates that the gap between the price of old real estate in my attractive locations and modern living at an interesting address will continue. For example, in the original, ie. Unreconstructed prefabricated flats in shared localities prices will fall by, in localities with the absence of services, greenery, far from the center and by a percentage point. In recent years, these properties have been overvalued and at the same time the market has corrected their price to normal. Appreciated quality real estate with a large parking lot in a location with very good transport accessibility, near the park, leisure signs, e.g. forest and quality civic amenities. ”
Central Group is somewhat modest in its opinion: “Central Group has given rise in the price of new housing in good locations in Prague, in the range of 5-10% of the year. In other localities, the stagnation of prices equals. For old apartments can be expected to fall in price. And most of all in apartments in old prefabricated houses, where the price could fall and a fifth. ”
Real estate agents: prices are going down, but only slightly
Josef Ingl, Commercial Director of MEXX Reality, will see price differentiation: “In regions affected by the economic crisis (redundancy, rising unemployment), the fall in prices in the first half of the year will be more pronounced than in less affected areas. Price differences between regions will thus increase. “
“The biggest interest at the moment is after apartments in old brick houses. But they must meet the conditions – good access to city centers, quality infrastructure in the area and at the same time must be a quiet location. In December, the demand for these flats in the Czech Republic rose by about 25%, mostly in Prague and other large cities. At the same time, the price decline of these properties stopped, and in some cities prices rose slightly in the turn of the year, ”Josef Ingl. Assessed the current situation.
Michal Pitucha, CEO of STING Real Estate Agency, gave the fall in prices: “In the second half and especially in the year 2008, we recorded a significant drop in property prices. These were mainly flats, which in extreme cases became cheaper and by 20% during the whole year. Assuming that this losk trend will continue for some time. I do not think that price declines should be sharp. In view of the price reduction in du percent. “
And what did the analysts not depend on?
“As far as residential real estate is concerned, I would expect prices to fall by as much as 20% in extreme cases (eg prefabricated flats with mountain transport infrastructure), in general, on average, this could be a slight decrease of about 5%. Even with residential real estate, I would like to see a certain bubble from previous years (cheap pensions), which should collapse, ”said Patrik Vyroubal, an analyst at Atlantik FT.
And what will the situation look like with new apartments? “Developei provide you with the usual discounts. To dream the price, allow them to dream of land prices, which can be observed. For new flats, I would generally expect price stagnation and a slight decline this year, “estimates Patrik Vyroubal.
“In the first half of this year, a specific situation will arise, because most people who want to buy a new home will speculate that property prices will fall, because they talk about it. Speculation will lead people to expect whether the central bank will cut rates again and whether there will be a generally expected decline in prices. Therefore, the market will not move at all in the first half of the year, “said Markta ichtaov from Next Finance.
You dotete yourself at Hypoindex.cz.