The world crisis has affected all markets in the region, but its consequences have become much more severe in individual countries. Unlike Hungary, which is most affected by the crisis, Poland is only indirectly affected by the crisis and has been going through the crisis for a relatively long time. Potential with slowing GDP growth or redundant workers in some sectors, but the extent of the crisis will be less pronounced than in the US, most EU countries or Hungary.
Poland has experienced very dynamic development since 1989 and is currently the seven strongest EU economy. The restructuring of economies and the influence of foreign investment have caused the country to become a major part of the European economy.
Polish companies and investors in foreign markets are very successful. Due to the still relatively strong dynamics of GDP growth, high domestic consumption, a stable banking sector and investment in infrastructure associated with the organization of the European football ampion in 2012, the impact on Poland is expected to be modest.
Many foreigners work in Polish construction and agriculture
The financing of existing infrastructure development projects is still secured. Poland, on the other hand, still suffered from several difficulties. First of all, he gave the stage of agricultural restructuring or economic emigration, which, with an estimated two million Poles working abroad, is a major problem. First of all, the country paradoxically encounters a huge shortage of workers and a significant number of employees in construction or agriculture are introduced only to foreigners.
Until the outbreak of the world financial crisis, Poland showed one of the largest GDP growth in the European Union and was the largest two foreign investors. In the last five years, GDP growth has been around 5 percent. Likewise, in the last few years, Poland has been one of the five most popular destinations for foreign investment. Over the last three years, 15 billion euros have flowed to Poland in investments.
It is important that Polish GDP is largely in domestic demand, compared to Slovakia or the Czech Republic, it is currently convenient. Therefore, the Polish economy will not be so severely affected by the reduction of consumption in the western countries. According to Poland, similarly to the Czech Republic, the Maastricht criteria for the adoption of the euro are close to being met, but unlike the Czech Republic, it is clearly full and the adoption of the euro itself is set for 2012.
Polish financial system
The Finann system in Poland works similarly to Central Europe, but we can also find differences here. For example, debt relief represents only ten percent of GDP, while the EU average is 45 percent. The main difference is the level and content of the financial services provided. The last 19 years in the countries of Central and Entrance Europe have been marked by the creation of a basic system of providing services to ordinary clients and companies.
The financial and banking market is not as developed as in western Europe and the USA. Investing in aggressive investment funds is a fraction of a percentage of all investments, making the Polish financial and capital market safe. It is estimated that only 2 percent of Polish banks’ investments are in CDO toxic papers.
Poland did not hear days of failures of financial institutions or banks. The only impact of the financial crisis is the prudence of financial institutions within the courts between banks and granted to clients. Unlike the Czech Republic, banks began to compete, for example, in terms of term deposits, when the offered year’s appreciation reached 9%. Likewise, banks actively offer much better conditions maintained here and the provision of other services.
From the point of view of banks, this breeding period is regularly timed, or, unlike in western Europe, Poles still use the services of banks less. At the present time, when people are afraid to invest, for example, in the housing market, it is therefore a good time for new clients to a properly valued resource.
Unlike the banking sector, which seems safe, there is great turbulence in the Polish capital market. The correlation between the Warsaw Stock Exchange and world stock exchanges is very strong; The changes in the exchange rate of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange and the WIG 20 index itself are not based only on Polish fundamentals, which are favorable not to those of the world, but to the thorn of psychology.
From the point of view of stabilizing the Polish economy, the decision is made by the central bank, which decides on the annual rates and thus also influences the exchange rate of the Polish zloty. The base year rate is currently at 6%, and as it seems clear that the estimate of GDP growth for five years (4.8%) is unrealistic, it is estimated that in the near future the rate will fall.
Since the meeting of 2008, the WIG20 index has lost 49%, falling to 1,747 points (November 12, 2008). It is expected that, first of all, the US and the euro area will keep the markets nervous, and therefore the Warsaw Stock Exchange. According to the position of the Warsaw Stock Exchange, the fact that foreign investors take the markets of Central Europe as one also worsens, which means that problems in Hungary, for example, have significantly affected currencies and stock exchanges in neighboring countries.
Until recently, the Polish zloty, together with the Czech crown, was one of the fastest-growing cities in the world, both in the status of safe peoples, due to their high GDP growth and the relatively balanced balance of both the central budget and the current market. At first, however, at that time, St. Polk took out mortgages abroad, or rates increased over the years, most often then in the French francs. With the weakening zloty, however, it caused mortgages and floats to increase.
The credit crunch, in which banks did not look at each other and were not interested in borrowing free money from each other, then caused a shortage of French francs in the Polish banking sector. The central bank was therefore forced to set up a credit line and provide sufficient liquidity in the French banks. Therefore, it is believed that the credit crunch in this way, but in a relatively small scale, also affects the Polish commercial banks.